???<p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-ALIGN: center" align="center"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 16pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷">辉煌的结束与毁灭的开始<span lang="EN-US"></span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">年开始了，人们总是对新的一年充满了幸福的憧憬，而中国的股民们更是在国内各大金融机构和所谓“著名经济学家“们美好描述下，对<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年寄予了太多不切实际的期望！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">年是辉煌牛市结束的开始，是熊市毁灭财富积累的元年，只所这样说：主要是基于以下几方面考虑，股市的上涨离不开资金的推动，离开了资金的推动，股市的上涨就无从谈起。<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年是国家宏观调控政策从紧的一年，也是股市故票市场超级大扩容的再次开始，其扩容压力来自信贷总量的收缩，进一步造成企业周转、发展的资金困难，越来越多的企业只能采取直接融资的方式来满足资金上的需求，从而造成大量企业需要上市的问题，国家同时也想把这种信贷风险以股票的形势转嫁到民众的身上，从而降低国有银行的金融风险系数。所以<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年毕竟是股票达扩容的开始；另一个方面，股改后的大非在四季度后越来越多，是另外股票大扩容的源泉之一，还有就是<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年信贷收缩后，大量的上市公司会以各种名义大量增发股票，抵消信贷收缩对企业经营上的影响，但这样会非常快的摊薄企业的每股盈利造成企业的经营业绩的下降！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">2008</span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">年股票市场的资金面又如何那？面对<span lang="EN-US">2007</span>年四季度遭世人唾弃的“蓝筹泡沫“，国家停止了新股票型基金的发行，这样看基金这方面的资金来源是没有多大的能量了；剩下就只是股票市场里的存量资金了，<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年股票个人所得税的申报，将促使，股票市场存量资金里的非基金资金的撤离，这样的话，本来面对股票大扩容就捉襟见肘的存量资金又减少了一块；人民币的不能快速升值和国内房地产业价格“拐点”的出现及常规项目下的资本不能自由进出和美国次贷危机将会在<span lang="EN-US">2008</span>年里的越演越烈，直接对中国经济增长构成中的外贸形成打击，造成公司业绩的下滑，外资撤退将形成一种狂潮，<span lang="EN-US">QFII</span>也会从中国股市中退出，本来就少的存量资金就又缺少了一块！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">试问头脑正常的人们在这样的情况下，中国股市的上证指数能上涨到<span lang="EN-US">8000</span>到<span lang="EN-US">10000</span>点吗？！！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">基于以上对资金供应和股票供应的分析及技术分析，我个人认为始于<span lang="EN-US">2007</span>年<span lang="EN-US">11</span>月<span lang="EN-US">28</span>，日的这波行情将在农历春节前后止步于<span lang="EN-US">6200</span>点左右，然后开始回调，再次下探到<span lang="EN-US">4900</span>点以下需求支撑，在获的支撑后再次冲击这轮牛市的新高点<span lang="EN-US">6900</span>点左右后，结束这波牛市行情！剩下的就是漫漫熊途，让散户们上下而求索了！</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 20pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">燕狂徒</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 32pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <wbr></span>2008<span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">年1</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">月8</span></span><span lang="EN-US"><span lang="EN-US">日</span></span><span lang="EN-US">星期二<span lang="EN-US">凌晨2</span></span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; LETTER-SPACING: -1pt">点</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="TEXT-INDENT: 32.35pt; mso-char-indent-count: 2.0"><span lang="EN-US" style="FONT-SIZE: 18pt; FONT-FAMILY: 华文行楷; mso-font-width: 90%"> <wbr></span></p> <wbr>